Hurricane Iselle and Julio in the eastern Pacific Ocean, are currently forecast to impact Hawaii towards the end of the work week. Above is the latest 2 km natural colour imagery of Julio, currently a category 1 hurricane.
The images below shows the enhanced infrared IR VIIRS of Hurricane Iselle (above) and Julio (below). These images can be used to determine hurricane intensification or weakening. The colder cloud tops between -70 and -80 C seen for hurricane Julio have been correlated with storm intensification. This is was ultimately led to its development into the fifth hurricane of the eastern Pacific season this year. In Iselle's case, the cloud tops ahead of the storm are warmer, showing weaker vertical development, and storm weakening since its Category 4 status on August 04, 2014.
Hurricane Iselle has shown signs of weakening on satellite imagery, and is going down the path to being downgraded to a tropical storm by the end of the day. A large area of dry air ahead of Iselle is the culprit for rapid weakening of a hurricane due to dry air entrainment. As well, as Iselle tracks eastwards towards Hawaii, strong gusty winds and heavy rains can also weaken out tropical systems. Based on current imagery, this large loss of moisture will most likely result in quick dissipation of Iselle as it nears the Hawaii islands.
Below is the water vapour image for Iselle and the Storm Relative 16 km Geostationary water vapour image for both Iselle and Julio respectively. Notice the dry air ahead of Hurricane Iselle, but a moisture environment ahead of Julio.
Julio can be seen in the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery quite nicely as well, right behind the heels of Iselle. With Hurricane Julio's current west-northwestward track, it will not have to deal with as much dry air as Iselle. However, Julio is currently forecast to track more northward where cooler ocean water (and relatively stronger wind shear) are present, which could limit its strength during its passage north of the Hawaii islands.
Below is Iselle's and Julio's track respectively.
Below are the past and future forecasted tracks for Iselle and Julio respectively. As of this morning, Iselle was a category 2 hurricane while Julio obtained category 1 hurricane status. The first image shows the colour enhanced IR image of hurricane Iselle overlaid with the Surface Adjusted Satellite Winds, displayed by the wind barbs.
The second image shows the IR image of Iselle (left) and Julio (right) today at 1330 UTC.
You can also learn more about Hurricane Iselle's and Julio's progression in the eastern Pacific at:
---------------------------------Update (Aug. 07, 2014)----------------------------------
These are the current watches and warnings in place for Hawaii. The last time a hurricane warning was issued for Hawaii was 22 years ago, when hurricane Iniki hit Kauai as a Category 4! It looks like the greatest impact from Hurricane Iselle will be felt on Hawaii's Big Island, as it makes landfall later tonight. If Iselle does make landfall on the Big Island as a Category 1 hurricane, this will be the first time in recorded history!
On a side note, Typhoon Genevieve has been upgraded to a Super Typhoon as of 5 a.m. EDT Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. This is in equivalence to the wind speeds of a Category 5 hurricane. It currently does not pose a risk to land.
Below is the 1 km visible satellite from MODIS/AVHRR of Super Typhoon Genevieve as well as its projected path and cone of uncertainty outlined in yellow from the CIMSS Tropical Cyclones site taken at 1332 UTC.
No comments:
Post a Comment