NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Wednesday, 16 May 2012

Quick Guide on Thunderstorms

Most of us have observed at least one of these in our lifetime, but what exactly makes up a thunderstorm?
Here is a quick, but useful, guide to understanding a little more about our day to day thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm (Defn.):



     1. One or more sudden electrical discharges occur.
  • Lightning Flash
  • Sharp rumbling - thunder
     2. The cumulonimbus base is lower than 0˚C isotherm.
 
     3. The cloud top temperature is less than -20˚C.


  • Glaciated Tops
  • Precipitation 




The life cycle of a single cell can be separated into three stages:
  • Cumulus stage
  • Mature stage
  • Dissipating stage
    
1. Cumulus Stage


Updraft:
  • Everywhere in the Cell
  • Varies in space and time
  • Maximal speed occurs at higher altitudes later in the period.
  • There is Horizontal Convergence at all levels.
There is an entrainment of drier environmental air.




Temperature
  •  The cell temperature exceeds the environmental temperature at each level.
  • As well, there are temperature anomalies in the updraft. Maximum usually occurs at end of the cumulus stage.                                                                
Precipitation

  • Greatest concentration is above the freezing level.
  • However, no surface precipitation.



2. Mature Stage






Updrafts continue...


Here Downdrafts are introduced:

  • Initiated at mid-levels of the storm
  • They increase in space and time
  • Maximum downdraft winds in falling precipitation (rain, hail)
  • Strong horizontal divergence at the surface ( Gusts can exceed 60 km/h)
Cloud grows physically

  • Reaches maximum height in the mature stage
Maximum turbulence is present in regions of greatest vertical motion.                            
 Storm Motion 




Temperature

  • Cloud tops < -40°C
  • Cold anomalies in downdrafts (Max at low levels)
  • Warm anomalies in the updrafts
Precipitation

  • Ice crystals present at the cloud top
  • Low level precipitation (liquid rain and solid (hail) possible)
  • The precipitation horizontal boundary marks the downdraft boundary                                                              
  • Hail possible in the downdrafts

    3. Dissipating Stage 



Collapsing Cell




Downdraft

  • Spreads throughout the entire cell
  • Speeds are less than in the mature stage
  • Surface wind divergence rapidly decreases
  • The turbulence intensity diminishes in the cell
Temperature

  • Cell temperature falls below the environmental temperature at each level and eventually equalizes 
Precipitation

  • The cirrus clouds blow off the top
  • Shower activity becomes light and decreases in intensity






















Severe Thunderstorm (Defn.):

Simply put it is a meteorological event consisting of a severe weather occurrence produced by a very large cumulonimbus cloud (CB).



The diagram above (which is adapted from Browning et al., 1976; The different greyshades represent radar reflectivities of 35, 45 and 50 dBz) shows a typical cross section through a Multi-Cell Thunderstorm. There are four successive cells in different stages of development, each of which takes ~15 minutes:
  • The shelf cloud n+1 has a, crisp, flat base which indicates an active updraft ahead of the cell n.
  • Cell n is a daughter cell which is in a developing stage.
  • Cell n-1 is in its mature stage and forms at the center of the storm.
  • Finally, Cell n-2 is in its dissipating stage.  

Severe weather occurrence: If one or more of these occurs,

  • Wind Gusts    90 km/h or more
  • Hail  2 cm in diameter or greater
  • Rainfall  50 mm in an hour or less
  • Tornado
Super Cell (Mature Stage)

  • Becomes very well organized with the surrounding environment
  • The dissipating stage is in this case postponed 
  • Updraft and downdraft work independently and lead to longer storm life
Updraft 

  • It is tilted
  • Precipitation particles carried out which initiate a separate downdraft





Wednesday, 9 May 2012

Types of Precipitation

Today I'd like to talk a little about the different types of precipitation that occur in the summer and winter seasons. This will mainly cover how these precipitation elements are formed and how to distinguish them from one another. As well, I will cover briefly some simple sounding profiles for each type of precipitation.

1. Rain (R, RA) 
Rain, consisting of larger precipitation drops having a radii between approximately 0.5 and 2 mm, is produced by clouds that are several kilometers in depth. Furthermore, there are two processes by which the raindrops can form; the first involves only the liquid state of water and the second involving ice crystals.

(a) Rain in non-freezing cloud(warm rain)
Rain droplets begin as small cloud droplets which grow slowly by diffusion (or condensation). Once they grow to  a sufficient size (radius= 30-40 um) coalescence growth takes over as the dominant mechanism and so growth proceeds much more rapidly. In Canada growth solely by this process is quite uncommon as it is more of a tropical phenomenon and hence gets the name "warm rain".

(b) Rain from ice crystals
This is the more common process for rain development in the mid-latitudes. In this case, raindrops form when snowflakes or graupel, which develop in the sub-freezing layers of the cloud, melt as they fall into the above freezing air near the ground. More on snowflakes and graupel later on.





2. Drizzle (DZ, L)
 Drizzle is composed of water droplets that have a diameter of approximately 0.1 mm. These droplets grow by the same process as rain in non-freezing clouds discussed above, i.e. by diffusion and coalescence. Drizzle however, fall from stratus clouds 1 km or less in thickness and thus it does not have the opportunity to grow by coalescence to the size of a typical raindrop. Sloping shorelines are a favoured location for drizzle.

Stratus Cloud with Light Drizzle


3. Snow (SN, SNW, S)
The growth of snowflakes is analogous to the raindrop growth by condensation and coalescence. Small ice crystals grow by diffusion of water vapour to their surfaces. As these crystals become larger they fall, colliding with and adhering to other crystals in a process known as aggregation to eventually form snowflakes. Aggregation occurs most effectively when temperatures are just below 0°C. As a result large snowflakes are found when the temperature is near freezing while small flakes are much more common at colder temperatures.


4. Snow Pellets (or Ice Pellets Type B) (GS)
If a falling ice crystal (or snowflake or frozen water droplet) encounters supercooled water droplets which then freeze on contact, growth by accretion occurs. The resulting ice particle is referred to as graupel. It has a rimed structure (white and opaque) and is most commonly spherical or conical in shape having a diammeter of 2-7 mm. The graupel particles that fall to the ground are referred to as snow pellets.

Most typically snow pellets fall from towering cumulus (TCU) cloud in spring and fall when surface temperatures are between 0°C and 8°C. Interestingly enough, more than 80% of all shower rainfall in Canada is the result of the melting of graupel before it reaches the ground.

Graupel


5. Hail (GR, A)
Hail is differentiated from graupel by its appearance, size, and density. Hailstones are typically 5 to 30 mm in diameter, translucent or transparent and consist of layers of clear and milky white hard ice. Hailstones usually begin as graupel particles that then begin to grow by a different kind of mechanism. While graupel particles grow by accreting supercooled water droplets that freeze on contact, during the hail process the water droplets do not  freeze on contact. Instead, a thin shell of water exists on the particle in which cloud droplets flow and freeze into a hard clear ice structure (which contains air bubbles). This difference in growth can be attributable to the surface temperature of the particle. The surface temperature of a graupel particle is less than 0°C while for a hailstone it is ~ 0°C.

There are 2 primary factors controlling the heat balance at the particles surface: there is the latent heat released by freezing cloud droplets and there is heat lost from the surface by conduction and convection. As the particle becomes larger it is unable to dissipate heat at a sufficiently high rate in order to maintain the surface temperature at ambient. Consequently, the surface temperature will approach 0°C. For typical atmospheric conditions this occurs at a ~10 mm diameter and thus this is the dividing line between hail and graupel.

Also in order for hail to grow there needs to be very high liquid water content in the cloud and strong updrafts. Therefore, hail usually falls from large cumulonimbus (CB) clouds but small hail may develop as well in TCU.




6. Ice Crystals (IC)
I mentioned earlier that ice crystals are the embryo for snowflakes. They also occur at the surface falling from either clear or cloudy skies, usually when temperatures are very cold. They can be found in various shapes and sizes including needles, hexagonal plates and hollow columns with the shape being largely a function of temperature. These crystals grow by diffusion of water vapour primarily onto sharp corners and edges.

7. Snow Grains (SG) 
 Snow grains are the solid equivalent of drizzle. They are very small white and opaque grains of ice that are fairly flat or elongated with a diameter of < 1 mm. As well, they grow by diffusion and aggregation like snowflakes, but like drizzle they fall from low, relatively thin stratus cloud and therefore do not have the opportunity to aggregate to the same size of snow. Below is a very simple schematic comparing different precipitation elements.


8. Freezing Rain  (FZRA, ZR)
Most of you probably know what freezing rain is. Freezing rain is supercooled rain droplets that freeze upon contact with the ground or other objects at the Earth's surface. The formation processes are exactly the same as the ones for rain. Freezing rain however falls from an above-freezing layer into a shallow below-freezing layer (about 1500 feet thick) at the Earth's surface. The surface temperature itself is around 0°C during a freezing rain event. You can refer to the end for a typical sounding for freezing rain.



9. Ice Pellets/Sleet (PE, PL, IP, SLT)
Ice pellets form in a similar manner to freezing rain. If the below-freezing layer at the Earth's surface is sufficiently deep the supercooled raindrops will freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground. Ice pellets often precede or accompany freezing rain and with ice pellets there is freezing rain aloft, which is crucial for aviation.



10. Freezing Drizzle (FZDZ, ZL)
In stratus cloud, cloud droplets and small precipitation droplets (drizzle) can exist in  a supercooled state typically at temperatures as low as -10°C. If these supercooled drizzle droplets fall to the ground, where the temperature is below 0°C, (or come into contact with the airplanes surface), they will freeze on contact. However it is important to note that unlike the case for freezing rain, freezing drizzle does not require the presence of an above-freezing layer aloft.

11. Freezing Fog (FZFG)
This is a fog composed of supercooled water droplets which then freeze just after they wet the Earth's surface.




12. Mixed Precipitation (MXD PCPN)
This is the combination of two or more winter precipitation elements occurring at the same time or over a period of time at the same location.


Here are the different precipitation sounding profiles for most of the types of precipitation mentioned above:










Sunday, 6 May 2012

Today's Outlook

Hello Everyone!
I've been on a long hiatus during my school year, but now that it has concluded, I'm back to writing some blogs. Since the SPC has covered a descent portion of the US under a slight risk today, I thought this would be a good place to start after a long break. 

There is a Slight Risk of severe storms today into this evening across portions of the upper Midwest into the Ozarks. Here...damaging winds and large hail will be possible and a severe thunderstorm watch is currently in effect for portions of ern IA and nwrn IL. 

Isolated severe storms will also be possible from ern KS into OK and central TX later this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and very large hail may accompany these storms.

Another area of severe storms is possible this afternoon across portions of the Southeastern US where mainly strong winds and some hail may occur. 

Below is the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook/Tornado Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center: 





As well, these are the current Mesoscale Discussions:

Areas of concern here are nrn MO and wrn/nrn IL.

Severe Thunderstorms should increase in an areal coverage along an outflow/frontal zone which stretches from nrn IL into nrn MO over the next couple of hours.
   

Areas of concern here are cntrl Ms and far w-cntrl AL.

Here isolated strong to severe storms will be possible through the afternoon and evening. Instances of large hail and strong/gusty winds will be possible from the strongest storms. Given that the nature of the convection is isolated/disorganized, a ww is not anticipated.


For more on the Current Convective Watches see: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
Stay tuned for more.