El Nino's Influence on Europe's Summer Forecast

There has been a lot of talk about the development of a "moderate" El Nino later on this year.

Here in North America we're begining to see a familiar pattern setting up, with strong ridging in the West and troughing in the East.

                                                                                         Courtesy of NCAR

Cliff Mass and Charlie have put out very detailed posts about the upcoming El Nino, so I will not go into detail about it myself. Links are provided below.

Cliff Mass's Post: http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/06/a-strong-el-nino-develops-what-does.html

Charlie's Post: http://charliesweatherforecasts.blogspot.ca/2015/04/an-el-nino-for-california.html

But what does this mean for Europe?

Upon diving deeper about El Nino and its effects, I was unable to find a definite answer to this question. Every El Nino plays out differently which is dependent on the rise in SST and its location in the Pacific Ocean (the distance of the "blob" from South America).

It has been noted that during El Nino events, high pressure has been seen to dominate over central and Eastern Europe more frequently over the summer months. This would mean above average temperatures and precipitation amounts to be anywhere from average to below average.

So I decided to look at the long range CFSv2 (NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2) model, to see if there is any truth to this. Here is what I discovered:

                                                                     Courtesy of NOAA

The top image shows the temperature anomalies for the months of July through to September. The CFSv2 model right now is hinting at average to slightly above average temperatures for central Europe.

                                                                      Courtesy of NOAA

The bottom image shows the precipitation anomalies for the months of July through to September. Here, the CFSv2 model is currently hinting from moderately to strongly below average precipitation for central and Eastern Europe.

So I was pretty surprised when I saw the outlook by the CFSv2 model. Mind you, this is a long range model and it certainly isn't carved in stone, but seeing similar hints in a model with comparison to other El Nino cases in the past, is always a good sign.

During my research I came across this article which explains El Nino and its impacts during the summer and winter in Europe. Thought some of you might enjoy the read:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6648;sess=

I'm hoping to provide another update before I leave for Europe in August. Until next time!